Climate Vulnerability Assessment Almond Results Report

Abstract

This report presents the results of a climate vulnerability assessment for almond production in New South Wales (NSW), Australia, undertaken as part of the NSW Primary Industries Climate Change Research Strategy. Using a multi-criteria analysis (MCA) modelling framework, the study evaluates historical (1981–2010) and projected future (2036–2065) climate suitability for almonds under intermediate (RCP4.5) and high (RCP8.5) emissions scenarios. The model incorporates key climate variables—including temperature, rainfall, and chill accumulation—across seven phenophases of almond development. Results indicate that current almond-growing regions in NSW are likely to retain overall high to very high climate suitability to 2050, with potential improvements in some early growth stages due to reduced frost incidence. However, increasing frequencies of high-temperature events (>40°C) during kernel filling and rising irrigation water requirements pose emerging risks to yield and quality, particularly in western regions. While climate suitability is largely maintained, adaptive management strategies—such as improving water-use efficiency and mitigating heat stress—will be critical to sustaining production. The assessment provides strategic, regionally relevant insights to inform policy, industry planning, and future research on climate resilience in horticulture.